Understanding Urgent and Emergency Care Trends in Northwest London
Introduction
On Emergency Services Day 2023, we, the Information and Intelligence theme in the Applied Research Collaboration Northwest London at Imperial College London, are excited to share the preliminary findings of our research project, which aims to shed light on urgent and emergency care services (UECS) in Northwest London (NWL).
Population Trends and Healthcare Challenges
As the population in the UK and globally continues to age, reflecting improved life expectancy and healthcare access, it brings both benefits and challenges. The prevalence of chronic diseases and comorbidities is on the rise, leading to increased strain on healthcare systems, including urgent and emergency care services.
Research Aims
Our study had two primary aims. Firstly, we aimed to explore time trends in visits to NWL-UECS, analysing how these trends evolved between 2016 and 2023. Secondly, we sought to describe variations between demographic and health groups in the population attending UECS. Our overarching goal was to understand how the characteristics of individuals attending UECS impact the pressures on these vital services. In particular, we were interested in whether patients presenting to NWL-UECS had more complex medical conditions over time.
Data Sources
We harnessed the power of the Whole System Integrated Care (WSIC) data in NWL to achieve these aims. We linked information about visits to urgent and emergency care services with demographic, social, and health data for individuals registered with a GP in NWL or who had been registered at some point in their lives.
COVID-19 Impact
Our journey through the data revealed some stark realities. One striking observation was the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the figure of the weekly visits illustrates, the number of visits to UECS saw two significant drops, representing the lockdown periods.
Who Visited Urgent and Emergency Care Services
Throughout the study period, we found that females and young people aged 15 and younger constituted the highest proportion of visits, 52% and 21.5%, respectively. Additionally, 32.3% of visitors came from areas in the second quintile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. The most common long-term health conditions were hypertension (16%), anxiety (15%), and depression (12%). Diabetes and obesity were also notable, each affecting 9% of those seeking UECS. However, be mindful that these numbers are compatible with published statistics for the UK population, both for the demographic groups and common health problems.
Time Trends
The data tells a story of evolving patterns over time. Notably, there was a rising trend in visits to UECS among males, particularly in older age groups. For instance, in 2018, those aged 76 and older constituted around 2% of visitors. By 2022, this percentage had increased to over 10%. The figure below reveals a similar trend for proportions of those with multi-morbidity (having two or more long-term conditions) in the weekly visits to UECS.
Implications for Urgent and Emergency Care
While beyond emergency services' control, population-level shifts have the potential to influence service quality and efficiency. A growing proportion of patients with chronic conditions and comorbidities necessitates more resources, staff, equipment, and beds. Moreover, patient health outcomes can signal disparities in care quality and effectiveness. Thus, understanding and addressing these community-wide factors is essential to enhancing the performance, quality, and equity of urgent and emergency care services and, by extension, the population's overall health.
Conclusion
Our research offers valuable insights into the dynamics of urgent and emergency care in Northwest London. In light of these preliminary findings, our ongoing study underscores the critical importance of considering broader demographic and health trends when shaping the future of urgent and emergency care. By recognising and proactively responding to the evolving healthcare landscape, we can better serve our communities and improve healthcare outcomes for all. We hope our findings will help shape policies and interventions to better serve our community's diverse needs.
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the data. Stay tuned for more updates as we delve deeper into this critical area of healthcare.
Happy Emergency Services Day!
Associated Research Theme:
This news story was written by Ahmad Alkhatib on behalf of the Information and Intelligence theme